Modeling of diffusion of innovation and typology of Russian regions: A case study of cellular communication

Stepan Zemtsov, Vyacheslav Baburin

Full text: http://dx.doi.org/10.7868/S0373244417100024

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Abstract

The article is devoted to modeling of spatial distribution of new product on the case of cellular communication. The paper provides an overview of the main models of diffusion of innovation. Depending on the mechanism of transfer of information about a new product, two consumer groups are allocated in the community: innovators and imitators. It is shown that the first stage of the spatial diffusion is characterized by the localization process in regions with a high proportion of innovators, in particular in large agglomerations; on the later stages imitation mechanisms predominate. Analysis of data on the penetration of cellular communication in Russia in the 2000s confirms the main theoretical conclusions. The paper describes a method of modeling, based on an evaluation of the parameters of the modified Bass model. The criteria of selection of the model parameters on the example of Russian regions were developed. With the technique, types of regions were identified according to ratio of innovators and imitators in regional communities. Most of innovators are concentrated in the largest metropolitan areas of the country; Moscow, Saint Petersburg and its nearby regions holds more than 50% of primary mobile phone users in 1999. Coastal and border regions (about 7% of primary users) are also highly innovative. Lagging regions have a small number of innovators and they are mainly the least developed regions with agricultural specialization and high communication barriers. The proposed method can be used to study and predict the processes of the spread of other innovations, and developed typology can be useful for the assessment of regional policy on the introduction of new technologies, legislation, etc.

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